مدل مدیریت ریسک مبتنی بر FMEA فازی در پروژه‌های ساخت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی و مدیریت ساخت دانشگاه پیام نور البرز

چکیده

در عصر حاضر ریسک در تمام جنبه‌های زندگی وجود داشته و پروژه‌های عمرانی نیز از این قاعده مستثنی نیستند. وجود ریسک‌ها و عدم قطعیت‌ها در مراحل مختلف کار، عامل اصلی به موفقیت نرسیدن پروژه در دستیابی به اهداف از پیش تعیین شده‌ی آن است. مدیریت ریسک پروژه علم شناسایی، تحلیل و پاسخ‌دهی به ریسک در طول عمر یک پروژه بوده که به منظور کاهش و یا حذف احتمال یا اثرات وقوع پیامدهای منفی بر اهداف زمان، هزینه و کیفیت پروژه به کار گرفته می‌شود. تکنیک FMEA یکی از روش‌های تعیین ارزش ریسک می‌باشد که نه تنها خطاها و نواقصی که در سیستم و فرایند به صورت نهفته و آشکار وجود دارند را شناسایی می‌کند، بلکه با اتخاذ تدابیر پیشگیرانه صحیح در صدد کاهش یا حذف آن‌ها نیز بر ‌می‌آید. برای تجزیه و تحلیل ریسک‌های موجود در پروژه‌های عمرانی با عدم قطعیت‌هایی از نوع ابهام رو به رو هستیم و تئوری فازی ابزارهای ریاضی لازم را برای مقابله با داده‌های نامشخص و مبهم فراهم می‌کند. بر این اساس در این پژوهش مدلی مشتمل بر هفت گام اساسی بر مبنای تلفیق تکنیک FMEA و منطق فازی پیشنهاد گردید. ریسک‌های موجود در پروژه‌های عمرانی به کمک مطالعات و تحقیقات پیشین شناخته شد و پارامترهای مؤثر بر ریسک‌ها توسط خبرگان مقدار‌ دهی گردید. با محاسبه عدد اولویت ریسک، رتبه‌بندی ریسک‌ها انجام گردید. علاوه بر ‌این روشی برای محاسبه و نگاشت سطح ریسک‌ها، معرفی شد که نه تنها ریسک‌های بحرانی بلکه تمام اجزای پرخطر ساختار شکست ریسک پروژه را نیز شناسایی می‌کند. همچنین در راستای کاهش و یا حذف پیامدهای منفی ریسک‌‌های با اولویت بالا، اقدامات اصلاحی در تحقیق بررسی گردید.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Risk Management Model Based on Fuzzy FMEA in Construction Projects

نویسنده [English]

  • Somayeh Ghorbani Noe
Master of Engineering and Construction Management, Payam Noor University of Alborz
چکیده [English]

Nowadays, there is risk in all aspects of life and construction projects are not excluded of this rule. Existence of risks and uncertainties in different stages of work is the main reason for the project's failure to achieve its predetermined goals. Project risk management is the science of identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk over the life of a project that is used to reduce or eliminate the likelihood or effects of adverse outcomes on project time, cost, and quality targets. The FMEA technique is one of the methods of determining the value of risk that not only identifies the errors and defects that are hidden and obvious in the system and process, but also searches to reduce or eliminate them by taking the correct preventive measures. To analyze the risks in construction projects, we are faced with uncertainties such as ambiguity, and fuzzy theory provides the necessary mathematical tools to deal with vague and ambiguous data. Accordingly, in this study, a model consisting of seven basic steps based on the combination of FMEA technique and fuzzy logic was proposed. The risks in construction projects were identified with the help of previous studies and researches and the effective parameters on the risks were quantified by experts. By calculating the risk priority number, the risks were ranked. In addition, a method for calculating and mapping the level of risks was introduced, which identifies not only critical risks but also all high-risk components of the project risk Breakdown structure. Also, in order to reduce or eliminate the negative consequences of high-priority risks, corrective measures were investigated in the research.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Risk Management
  • FMEA
  • Fuzzy logic
  • Risk priority number
  • Risk Breakdown Structure
  • Corrective Measures
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