Somayeh Ghorbani Noe
Abstract
As projects grow and develop and become more complex, new tools are needed to help manage projects. One of these tools is risk management, because in an unstable and uncertain environment, one can expect Out-of-schedule and unexpected events at any time. Experts' knowledge is often used to assess the ...
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As projects grow and develop and become more complex, new tools are needed to help manage projects. One of these tools is risk management, because in an unstable and uncertain environment, one can expect Out-of-schedule and unexpected events at any time. Experts' knowledge is often used to assess the risk of projects, but humans always use words and phrases in their conversations that have no clear boundaries. Fuzzy logic is used to deal with such ambiguous words and phrases. Fuzzy set theory is a method that has proven effective in managing uncertainties similar to those mentioned in construction projects. A fuzzy expert system is an expert or knowledge-based system that uses a set of fuzzy membership functions and rules to reason data instead of binary logic. For systems with high uncertainty where sufficient and accurate information is not available, the fuzzy approximation reasoning approach is proposed. Fuzzy system input can be inaccurate information and system processing is done using approximate reasoning. In this study, the risks in construction projects were investigated by obtaining the opinions of experts in the fields of clients, consultants and contractors. By providing steps, we have tried to identify risks, evaluate them, and control high-priority risks using fuzzy logic and expert systems.
Somayeh Ghorbani Noe
Abstract
Nowadays, there is risk in all aspects of life and construction projects are not excluded of this rule. Existence of risks and uncertainties in different stages of work is the main reason for the project's failure to achieve its predetermined goals. Project risk management is the science of identifying, ...
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Nowadays, there is risk in all aspects of life and construction projects are not excluded of this rule. Existence of risks and uncertainties in different stages of work is the main reason for the project's failure to achieve its predetermined goals. Project risk management is the science of identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk over the life of a project that is used to reduce or eliminate the likelihood or effects of adverse outcomes on project time, cost, and quality targets. The FMEA technique is one of the methods of determining the value of risk that not only identifies the errors and defects that are hidden and obvious in the system and process, but also searches to reduce or eliminate them by taking the correct preventive measures. To analyze the risks in construction projects, we are faced with uncertainties such as ambiguity, and fuzzy theory provides the necessary mathematical tools to deal with vague and ambiguous data. Accordingly, in this study, a model consisting of seven basic steps based on the combination of FMEA technique and fuzzy logic was proposed. The risks in construction projects were identified with the help of previous studies and researches and the effective parameters on the risks were quantified by experts. By calculating the risk priority number, the risks were ranked. In addition, a method for calculating and mapping the level of risks was introduced, which identifies not only critical risks but also all high-risk components of the project risk Breakdown structure. Also, in order to reduce or eliminate the negative consequences of high-priority risks, corrective measures were investigated in the research.
Mostafa Pourhosein zakariaee
Volume 1, Issue 4 , September 2019, , Pages 40-52
Abstract
Risk management is an integral part of a project's success and is a process that helps identify early problems and thus take steps to prevent them from becoming real problems in the future. In this paper, multi-criteria decision making methods are used as a quantitative approach to prioritize identified ...
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Risk management is an integral part of a project's success and is a process that helps identify early problems and thus take steps to prevent them from becoming real problems in the future. In this paper, multi-criteria decision making methods are used as a quantitative approach to prioritize identified risks in the project. Finally, after reviewing the problem conditions, a multi-criteria decision-making method for ranking the project risks in fuzzy mode is introduced and the application of this approach in the water transmission line industry by using fuzzy TOPSIS method as a case study of the tropical design project - Part 2 Is located.
