Document Type : Research Article
Authors
Civil engineering, construction engineering and management, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz Branch, Shiraz, Iran
Abstract
Earned value management (EVM) is one of the most frequently applied methods in project management for the investigation of the performance and controlling of the temporal and cost progress of the project. Using its temporal and cost control indices, this method is capable of predicting the future status of the project in terms of time and cost. But, this approach falls short of taking the risk analysis and project’s variability into account. The primary goal of the present study is the conceptual and subjective combining of risk management and EVM and investigation of the effect of risk occurrence on the project’s objectives using the EVM indices. To collect the information on the theoretical foundations and study literature and study background, use has been made herein of the Persian and Latin books, articles, dissertations and information databases and questionnaire and interview have been the methods of choice for gathering the information pertinent to the scales and indices. Moreover, in order to identify and prioritize the risks, the perspectives of the sophisticated experts and managers in civil activities have been inquired and ANP and Super Decision Software have been the instruments of interest for information analysis. After analyzing and evaluating and prioritizing the risk, the risk management process has been applied along with challenging the dimensions and factors influencing the project’s prospective performance to offer the risk coefficient that was subsequently combined with the current EVM indices for increasing the accuracy and precision of the project goals’ estimation. A civil reconstruction project (central building project of Shiraz’s municipality) in progress was evaluated for applying and comparing this method. Finally, it was found that the occurrence of risk has a significant impact on the project's objectives and changes its time and costs, additionally, given the risk factor, deviation from the time and cost of the project can considerably decrease.
Keywords
- Project management
- Risk management
- Earned value management
- Risk impact coefficient
- Analytic Network Process (ANP)
- BIM (Building Information Modeling)
Main Subjects
)