Civil and Project journal

Impact of Intercity Bus Fleet Age on Passenger Numbers and Out-of-City Road Casualties

https://doi.org/10.22034/cpj.2024.433262.1247
Volume 6, Issue 1 - Serial Number 59
April 2024
Pages 11-23
Civil and Project journal

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Mahdi Rahbar 1
Reza Amin 2
Ali Khodaii 3

1 Master's student in Road and Transportation Engineerig, AmirKabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

2 M.Sc. graduate, Department of Civil & Environment, AmirKabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

3 Full professor, Department of Civil & Environment, AmirKabir University of Technology, Tehran

Abstract
The main objective of this article is to examine the impact of the average age of intercity bus fleets on the number of passengers and road fatalities. To this end, data from the Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization of Iran and the Forensic Medicine Organization of Iran between the years 2018-2022 have been used. Transportation is one of the most important sectors in every country, and a considerable volume of transportation in our country takes place through roads. More than 80% of intercity travelers in the country are transported by intercity buses. Therefore, studying the factors affecting the quantity and quality of bus fleets is of particular importance.Unfortunately, in our country, due to various reasons such as sanctions, inflation, economic difficulties, lack of attracting investors, lack of attention by officials to planning and development, etc., the number of active buses has decreased and the average age of fleets has increased. In this research, data definition, study, and comparison have been used considering the subject of the research. The results show that with the increase in the average age of fleets, the average number of passengers has even decreased after the lifting of the COVID-19 restrictions and had a downward trend. Moreover, the risks and accidents of intercity travel and the increase in fatalities have increased with the aging of the fleets, and the shortage of bus tickets has become one of the problems, especially on special occasions. Proposed solutions to address this issue and reduce the average age of fleets, in the current conditions of the country, require more investment and attention, liberalization and assistance in importing new buses, and long-term support to domestic bus manufacturers to increase the quality and quantity of buses.

Keywords

Average age of fleet
intercity bus
road transport
intercity passengers
Subjects
Aghapour, N., & Moindini, M. (2023). Evaluating the effectiveness of bus fleet replacement scenarios in
reducing air pollution in Karaj city. Environmental Science and Technology, 25(4), 79-90. Persian
Christoforou, Z. D., Karlaftis, M. G., & Yannis, G. (2010, March). Heavy vehicle age and road safety.
In Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Transport (Vol. 163, No. 1, pp. 41-48). Thomas Telford Ltd.
۱۵۱۲
۱۳۰۶
۱۲۳۳
۱۱۶۷
۱۰۴۴
۰
۲۰۰
۴۰۰
۶۰۰
۸۰۰
۱۰۰۰
۱۲۰۰
۱۴۰۰
۱۶۰۰
۱۳۹۷ ۱۳۹۸ ۱۳۹۹ ۱۴۰۰ ۱۴۰۱
۲۳ / رهبر, مهدی, امین, رضا, & خدائی, علی. -۱۱ ،)۲(6 ، نشریه عمران و پروژه، ۱40۳
۲۳
Chang, Y. H., & Yeh, C. H. (2017). Corporate social responsibility and customer loyalty in intercity bus
services. Transport policy, 59, 38-45.
Gnap, J., & Dočkalik, M. (2023). RENEWAL OF BUSES AND REGISTRATION OF NEW BUSES IN THE
SLOVAK REPUBLIC AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC. Journal of Applied Engineering Science, 21(1), 116-
126.
Khodadadkashi, F., Noorani Azad, S. & Ganbari, B. (2017). The effect of fleet renewal on the productivity of
Iran's road transport industry. Economic Modeling Quarterly (year 12, number 2 (consecutive 42) summer 2017,
137-160). Persian
Khedri, E., Amin, R., & Khodaee, A. (2023). Mortality trend due to traffic accident in Iran in Years 2018-
2021. Civil and Project, 5(4).
Lécuyer, J. F., & Chouinard, A. (2006, June). Study on the effect of vehicle age and the importation of vehicles
15 years and older on the number of fatalities, serious injuries and collisions in Canada. In Proceedings of the
Canadian Multidisciplinary Road Safety Conference XVI (Vol. 11).
Law, T. H., Daud, M. S., Hamid, H., & Haron, N. A. (2017). Development of safety performance index for
intercity buses: An exploratory factor analysis approach. Transport policy, 58, 46-52.
Nemati, S. A., Amin, R., & Khodaii, A. (2023). Analysis and Prediction of Road Accident Severity Using Binary
Logit Model: A Case Study of Road Traffic Accident Data in Canada 2019. Civil and Project, 5(6), 45-57.
Najafli, M., Khodaii, A. & Amin, R., (2023). investigation of the factors affecting the severity of accidents in
Iran's extra-urban roads and its comparison with European Union countries, Volume 51, Paya Shahr Magazine.
Omid, A. F., Amin, R., & Khodaii, A. (2023). Assessment of The Impact of Vehicle Type on the Probability of
Accidents in Road Transportation Using the Multinomial Logit Model. Civil and Project, 5(3), 11-23.
Qiu, Z., Li, X., Hao, Y., Deng, S., & Gao, H. O. (2016). Emission inventory estimation of an intercity bus
terminal. Environmental monitoring and assessment, 188, 1-10.
Ramezani, A., & Shabankho, A. (2013). Managing the reduction of environmental damage in passenger
terminals (case study - West Tehran passenger terminal). Man and Environment, 11 (No. 3 (26-37)) , 38-61.
Persian
Razi Ardakani, H., & Ahadi, M. (2014). Modeling and analyzing the intensity of accidents of inner and outer
city buses. Modeling in Engineering, 12(38), 59-74. Persian
Török, Á. (2020). A novel approach in evaluating the impact of vehicle age on road safety. Promet-
Traffic&Transportation, 32(6), 789-796.
Turan, H. H., Elsawah, S., & Ryan, M. J. (2020). A long-term fleet renewal problem under uncertainty: A
simulation-based optimization approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 145, 113158.
Woldeamanuel, M. (2012). Evaluating the competitiveness of intercity buses in terms of sustainability
indicators. Journal of public transportation, 15(3), 77-96.
Wen, C. H., Lan, L. W., & Cheng, H. L. (2005). Structural equation modeling to determine passenger loyalty
toward intercity bus services. Transportation Research Record, 1927(1), 249-255.

Home

Submit

Contact Us

Forthcoming Articles