Foresight of Iran's Water Resources Crisis: The Risk of Chronic Water Scarcity and Its Security Implications at the National and International Levels

Document Type : Research Article

Author

Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Tourism, Payame Noor University, Tehran Province, Tehran, Iran

Abstract
The water crisis in Iran has transcended its environmental and managerial dimensions, gradually emerging as a strategic, social, economic, and security challenge. The continuous decline in renewable water resources, severe depletion of groundwater, increasing climate instability, unbalanced consumption growth, and inefficient water governance have elevated the risk of water scarcity evolving into a chronic and structural crisis. This article conducts a foresight-based analysis of the water resources crisis, emphasizing the peril of chronic water scarcity and examining its security implications at both national and international levels. The research employs a descriptive-analytical methodology within a strategic foresight framework, using library-based data collection. Findings indicate that if current trends persist, the water crisis will exacerbate economic insecurity, forced migration, and social tensions. On a broader scale, water scarcity has increasingly threatened human security in recent decades, serving not only as a trigger for conflict but also as a weapon and target in armed conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. The study concludes that mitigating these threats to national and international peace and security requires a fundamental transition from short-term, sectoral management to integrated, security-based governance and strengthened water diplomacy.

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  • Receive Date 27 March 2026
  • Revise Date 06 April 2026
  • Accept Date 19 April 2026
  • First Publish Date 21 April 2026
  • Publish Date 21 April 2026