مدیریت ریسک مبتنی بر سیستم‏های خبره فازی در پروژه‌های ساخت

قربانی  نوع, سمیه

doi:10.22034/cpj.2022.04.01.1121

مدیریت ریسک مبتنی بر سیستم‏های خبره فازی در پروژه‌های ساخت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

سمیه قربانی نوع

دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی و مدیریت ساخت دانشگاه پیام نور البرز، ایران

10.22034/cpj.2022.04.01.1121

چکیده

با گسترش و توسعه روز افزون پروژه‌ها و پیچده‌تر شدن آن‌ها، نیاز به ابزارهای جدید برای کمک به مدیریت پروژه‌ها الزامی است. از جمله‌ی این ابزارها مدیریت ریسک است، چرا که در یک محیط بی‌ثبات و نامعین، هر لحظه می‌توان انتظار وقوع رخدادهای خارج از برنامه و غیر منتظره را داشت. غالباً از دانش افراد خبره برای ارزیابی ریسک پروژه‌ها استفاده می‌گردد اما انسان‌ها همواره از کلمات و عباراتی در محاورات خود استفاده می‌کنند که مرزهای روشنی برای خود ندارند. برای برخورد با چنین کلمات و عبارات مبهمی از منطق فازی بهره گرفته می‌شود. تئوری مجموعه‌های فازی روشی است که کارایی خود را برای مدیریت عدم قطعیت‌هایی مشابه موارد ذکر شده در مورد پروژه‌های ساخت نشان داده است. سیستم خبره‌ی فازی عبارت است از یک سیستم خبره یا سیستم مبتنی بر دانش که برای استدلال داده‌ها از مجموعه‌یی از توابع عضویت و قواعد فازی به جای منطق دودویی استفاده می‌کند. برای سیستم‌های با عدم قطعیت زیاد که اطلاعات کافی و دقیقی نیز در دسترس نیست، رویکرد استدلال تقریبی فازی مطرح می‌شود. ورودی سیستم فازی می‌تواند اطلاعات نادقیق باشد و پردازش‌های سیستم نیز با بهره‌گیری از استدلال تقریبی انجام می‌شوند. در این تحقیق به بررسی ریسک‌های موجود در پروژه‌های عمرانی از طریق کسب نظرات خبرگان حوزه‌های کارفرمایی، مشاور و پیمانکاری پرداخته شد. با ارائه گام‌بندی سعی در شناسایی ریسک‌ها، ارزیابی آن‌ها و کنترل ریسک‌های با اولویت بالا با استفاده از منطق فازی و سیستم‌های خبره داشته‌ایم.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Risk Management Based on Fuzzy Expert Systems in Construction Projects

نویسنده [English]

Somayeh Ghorbani Noe

Master of Engineering and Construction Management, Payam Noor University of Alborz, Iran

چکیده [English]

As projects grow and develop and become more complex, new tools are needed to help manage projects. One of these tools is risk management, because in an unstable and uncertain environment, one can expect Out-of-schedule and unexpected events at any time. Experts' knowledge is often used to assess the risk of projects, but humans always use words and phrases in their conversations that have no clear boundaries. Fuzzy logic is used to deal with such ambiguous words and phrases. Fuzzy set theory is a method that has proven effective in managing uncertainties similar to those mentioned in construction projects. A fuzzy expert system is an expert or knowledge-based system that uses a set of fuzzy membership functions and rules to reason data instead of binary logic. For systems with high uncertainty where sufficient and accurate information is not available, the fuzzy approximation reasoning approach is proposed. Fuzzy system input can be inaccurate information and system processing is done using approximate reasoning. In this study, the risks in construction projects were investigated by obtaining the opinions of experts in the fields of clients, consultants and contractors. By providing steps, we have tried to identify risks, evaluate them, and control high-priority risks using fuzzy logic and expert systems.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Risk Management
Fuzzy Logic
Uncertainty
Expert Systems
Approximate Reasoning

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